From 3 to 5 October, the Rating Group ran a survey across Ukraine on current issues, peace, the war, and the hard winter that is coming.
The fieldwork came before the developments over Russian diesel, before Trump’s comments on elections in Ukraine and on Zelenskyy stepping down, and before the United States told Ukraine it could not strike Russian energy infrastructure and facilities, or else retaliation would follow.
The retaliation that became visible was a cut in the speed of Starlink and Starshield, both of which Ukraine uses for defense and for striking back at Russian drones. Washington also threatened to cut off intelligence, meaning military information from US agencies on Russian targets and, by Kyiv’s estimate, on incoming ballistic missile strikes.
What Ukrainians expect from the winter ahead
33% of people surveyed think the situation at the front will improve this winter, while 30% said it will stay as it is. 22% expect it to get worse, and 15% picked “hard to say,” the equivalent of “I don’t know, I won’t answer.”
A majority expects the economy to deteriorate, at 71%, and energy at 63%, at a time when Ukraine is dealing with power cuts. For the overall situation in the country, 55% expect it to worsen.
12% hope for an improvement. One Ukrainian in four, 25%, thinks the overall situation will not change.
Energy is one of the most pressing questions, so the poll asked separately for views on energy supply. 47% think the situation will not differ from last year. 9% see an improvement and 39% a worsening. The survey notes that a year ago, expectations for winter energy supply were roughly the same.
How people see possible talks with Russia
Most Ukrainians say they are ready for a ceasefire and support negotiations as the only road to peace. They are not prepared, however, to accept “peace on any terms.”
62% of respondents think that, at the moment, neither Ukraine nor Russia is winning. 26% think Ukraine is winning, and 6% think Russia is.
Exactly half of those asked said peace is more important than any victory. 41% think victory matters more than any peace, and 9% said “hard to say.” The share who believe victory is more important has risen.
57% are for an end to the fighting and a search for compromise through talks. 13% support continuing operations until Ukrainian forces are back at the lines of control of February 23, 2022. 21% want the war to go on until the Donbas and Crimea are recovered, meaning Ukraine’s borders from before 2014, when an army without insignia, marked with the Z sign, invaded and Crimea was annexed.
An absolute majority sees talks as a realistic way to end the war. 57% think a compromise involving other countries is the only path, while 26% want direct negotiations, without any third country involved.
Can parts of Ukraine be ceded?
Taken together, most respondents think territorial concessions can be made only with security guarantees, and that the decision has to be taken in a referendum across the whole of Ukraine.
35% oppose territorial concessions as a step toward a lasting peace. 56% say concessions can be made in the name of a lasting peace, but only with security guarantees from partners in the United States and Europe, including funding for the Defense Forces and weapons.
Unconditional concessions are supported by just 3%, while 6% answered “hard to say.”
If territorial concessions are made a condition of peace, 68% think the people should take the final decision in a referendum. 17% said the president should take it, and 9% the Verkhovna Rada, Ukraine’s parliament. On this question, the changes from last year are very small.
Trust in political figures
On the chart, dark blue stands for “I fully trust” and light blue for “I mostly trust.” Light grey means “hard to answer” and grey “I have not heard of him.” Light orange means “I mostly do not trust” and dark orange “I do not trust at all.” The names that follow are in the same order as on the chart.
Former commander-in-chief Valerii Zaluzhnyi is the person Ukrainians trust most, at 64%, while 25% take a negative view. Volodymyr Zelenskyy has the trust of 53%, against 40% who do not trust him. 7% found it hard to answer, and 5% had not heard of him.
The sitting president, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, has the trust of 53%. 40% do not trust him, and 6% find it hard to take a position.
Kyrylo Budanov has the trust of 53%, and 31% do not trust him. 11% had not heard of him, and 5% did not want to answer.
Mykhailo Fedorov, former digital transformation minister and defense minister, has the trust of 38%. 25% do not trust him, and 29% have never heard of him.
Defense minister Yevhenii Khmara is unknown to a majority, at 43%. 29% trust him, 16% do not, and 12% did not want to answer.
Former president Petro Poroshenko has the trust of 24%, and 70% do not trust him.
48% of Ukrainians have not heard of foreign minister Andrii Sybiha. 24% trust him, 18% do not, and 10% did not want to answer.
Who would get the vote if an election were held next Sunday
Voting intention, the main question, was saved for the end. Respondents were asked whom they would pick in the first round of a hypothetical presidential election in Ukraine.
Ahead in support are Volodymyr Zelenskyy on 22.9% and Valerii Zaluzhnyi on 20.2%. Next is former president and “chocolate king” Petro Poroshenko on 7.6%, level with Mykhailo Fedorov. Then comes Kyrylo Budanov on 6.7%.
Brigadier general Andrii Biletskyi, a former lawmaker, a current neo-Nazi and an advocate of white supremacy, follows on 5.4%. Independent lawmaker Dmytro Razumkov has 5.1%, and presenter Serhii Prytula 2.4%. Yulia Tymoshenko, head of a political party and the first woman to serve as prime minister, who was released during Euromaidan, comes in on 1.9%. Last is Yurii Boiko on 1.4%, a former pro-Russian politician whose party was banned and who set up a new, pro-European one.
Alongside that, 4.5% of respondents would vote for another candidate, 5.2% would not take part, and 9.2% answered “hard to say.”
How the survey was done
The survey used computer-assisted telephone interviews and a random sample of mobile numbers. The sample has 1,000 respondents aged 18 and over, and it is representative by age, sex, and type of area.
The statistical error is no more than 3.1%, inside the scientific bounds for reliable conclusions. Results were weighted with the latest official figures from the State Statistics Service of Ukraine.
Source: Article365